NUT REPORT WEEK 4 (GLOVES ARE OFF)
The offseason optimism is over. The season just became real for a lot of owners this week. Moves will start to be more frequent, and desperation will start to set in. For the first time this year, Strength of Schedule has returned to the report. Of all the stats and numbers that gets created in this report. Strength of Schedule is like the PFF of our league. It puts everyone in everyone else’s shoes. And yes, a win is a win, BUT this shows how your team measures up against others. While also letting you determine if it’s just bad luck or something that’s actually wrong with the team.
Example of this would be having one of the top 3 easiest schedules so far and not having a winning record.
Anyway, I’ll probably go in-depth about this more later this week. But as promised, here is the week 4 report.
NUT REPORT WEEK 3 (DON'T BAIL)
Fantasy football is funny. Just look at our top 3 teams. The season is early, so no need to trade away your team. Please don’t trade away your team. We’ve all done things for two weeks and stuck with that longer. Don’t bail.
As always. Week 3 is updated, historical stats are updated. Everything. Strength of schedule, and those missing data points in the weekly report will be filled out next week once we finally get more data.
Also NUT Bot is officially fixed. Sorry about rubbing in any bad week 1 scores for anyone.
Anyway, here is the report.
NUT REPORT WEEK 2 (AKA WE'RE BACK)
Here we are again. I think the 6th or 7th year of the NUT Report. And we haven’t missed a beat.
Linked below, will be gentle reminders to check out all the HISTORICAL STATS pages as those have been updated as well.
Who won the 2018 Draft?
With history comes lessons. And with lessons comes opportunities to teach. - Ancient DVFFL Proverb
The 2019 DVFFL Draft is right around the corner. But for the first time ever, I’m putting together a bit of a deeper dive into the annual Draft Report.
Simply put, the report maps out every player drafted and plots them in a round by round rank of where they finished. Teams at the end are graded on the average of where their player finished in each round. Obviously, players move, and much of the value/bust doesn’t really fall onto the drafting owner. Now I’ve been doing this report for 6 years, but fantasy football is a game of trends. And there are several interesting trends that, when you look back at last year and the previous, you can find some interesting tidbits about your opponents.
Winning the draft matters, draft positioning doesn’t (unless you’re 12th)
One easy way to go have an +80% chance to get to the playoffs is to rank in the top 5 of the draft value chart. Over the past 6 years of the report, the 4 of the top 5 teams have all gone to the playoffs (except for 2016, when only 2 did).
And draft positioning doesn’t matter at all in winning your draft… unless you draft 12th. For whatever reason, owners of the 12 seed have finished more times in the top 3 than any other team (over 4 times!)
We’re all better at drafting (yes, even Brandon)
2018 was the best overall drafting grade for the entire league. Teams are doing their research and the numbers are improving across the board for all teams. Garrett finished the the best draft grade in the entire league with a grade of 5.6. Meaning, in each round he drafts - the players he is selecting are roughly finishing around the 5th best out of 14. The lowest mark was Brandon at 8.8. Which in previous years would be as high as 3rd. It still doesn’t hold a flame to the worst draft of all time, Zach in 2016, for a 12.2 grade. But that’s what drafting Fat Eddie and a one kneed Jamaal Charles gets you in the first two rounds.
Mitch would have made the playoffs if he didn’t trade
Mitch was the only team that finished in the top 5 of draft grades to not make the playoffs. A good reason for that is trading away some of the top graded out players to Garrett. In return, Mitch received some of the Garrett’s worst graded players (Alex Collins, Kenny Stills). Now there is no way to tell that in reality this hypothesis would be the case. But it is safe to say Mitch wouldn’t have finished as the worst team in league history if he didn’t do these deals.
Brandon really should think about auto-drafting
I know I praised Brandon earlier saying this was his best draft yet (it was), it’s just looking at the finer details that makes you think that maybe auto-drafting would have served Brandon better. Oh, and before I forget, remember earlier when I said if you have the 12th seed you’re almost guaranteed a top draft grade and thusly, a 80% chance of making the playoffs? Well, the only year that the 12th seed wasn’t in the upper half of the league was in 2014 when Brandon had the 12th seed and got a draft grade ranked 12th out of 14 teams.
Back to my point.
In 2018, Brandon’s best graded out players were a QB he took in the 4th (the first one taken, Rodgers finished QB6), Cohen in the 6th and Zuerlein in the 14th. Outside of Woods and Juju - the rest of his draft was horrible.
Cody isn’t much better
He finished 13th. Right above Brandon.
But who won the 2018 Draft?
Garrett.
Find out more interesting fun facts about your draft, your rivals, your brothers or Brandon’s draft here:
https://www.dvffl.com/draft-history
BREAKING NEWS: KADEN IS THE 14TH TEAM
Welcome to the DVFFL Kaden. May your team suck, and your draft suck more.
July Vote Results
Auction Draft this year
9 in favor 4 against
Decimals this season
7 Against 6 in favor
Change platforms
10 in favor of sleeper
3 in favor of ESPN
1 man keeper next year
8 against 5 in favor
NUT Report WK15 (last of the season)
This is going to be the last NUT Report of the season. I’m out on vacation and won’t be able to update until I return. But I have faith that the stats won’t lead you astray ;)
NUT Report WK14
Blah blah, playoffs are here. You’re not reading this for this writeup. You want the playoff NUT Report.
So here it is:
NUT Report WK13
1 more game. Simply put, this is the biggest game of the year for 10 teams. The season comes down to this. Brian, Peyton, Christian, Garrett and Zach have secured a top 5 seed. The order is very much up for debate. Any loss to Brian, Peyton or Christian with a win by Garrett or Zach will place any loser fo the top 3 seeds in 4th or 5th due to total points scored. If all 5 teams win. The stands will remain as is.
Kory has clinched a playoff spot and can finish no better than 6th, and no worse than 7th (due to points scored).
The race for 8th goes as follows:
7th: Mike 6-6 (With win can finish 6th or 7th *depending on Kory W or L / With loss and Cal win, could finish 9th. With loss and Dylan win would finish 8th. With loss and Dylan and Cal win would finish would finish 9th.)
8th: Brandon 6-6 (With win can finish 7th with Mike loss / With loss and Cal win, would finish 9th. With loss and Dylan win, would finish 9th. With loss and Cal and Dylan win would finish 10th.)
—-
9th: Cal 5-7 (With win can finish 7th with Mike and Brandon Loss or 8th With Mike OR Brandon loss. If Cal loses he is eliminated. If Brandon and Mike win, he is eliminated)
10th: Dylan 5-7 (With win can finish 8th with Mike and Brandon loss. With Brandon loss and Mike win would finish 8th. With Mike loss and Brandon win would finish 9th. If Dylan loses he is eliminated. If Brandon wins and Mike loses he is eliminated. If both win he is eliminated.)
That at a quick glance is what is at stake. The top 5 seeds have a more complex set out outcomes, but the race for 8th is where all eyes are drawn.
Good luck and see you in the playoffs.
NUT Report WK12
Two games left and 13 owners are still in play.
Peyton, Garrett, Zach, Brian and Christian have all clinched.
Brandon and Kory are most likely one win away from clinching.
Then there is the race for 8th.
Mike is still in the driver seat, if he wins his next two he will clinch regardless of results of the other owners. However, one loss in the next two for Mike opens the door. His next two games: Peyton and Jadon.
And on a somber note. Mitch needs to win out to avoid having the worst record in league history currently held by Tucker 1-12 (when we had a 17 week season).
NUT Report WK11
10 weeks in and the playoff picture is already starting to finalize. With last week’s win (and loss). Peyton is the first team to clinch a playoff spot. This is the first time he is returning to the playoffs since 2014.
In addition to Peyton’s win, Mitch has become the first team eliminated from playoff contention. Leave 12 teams in play.
Mike holds the 8th spot by himself at the moment at 5-5. With three games left it appears that the magic number of wins for the remaining teams in the hunt is 7. A 7-6 record should be just enough to jump up to that 8th spot. But Mike has destiny in his hands. If he wins out, the race won’t be a race at all.
NUT Report WK7
Here we are, entering the halfway point. I have preached schedule matters all year. And I think it’s good time to really bring that to light. You will see that Strength of Schedule has been added as a data point in the weekly report. The chart still exists at the bottom, but I wanted to put a number scale 1-14 to put some perspective to it. For reference, 1 means hardest - 14 means easiest. Some key learnings from this:
- Of the tier 1 teams, only my team is playing a top 5 hard schedule.
- Brandon has played Seed #10-14 for his 5 wins. His loss came against #7 Garrett and he lost by 53 points. He plays #5 Brian this week.
- Dylan is particularly shitty. He has played the easiest schedule and yet holds the 2nd worst record.
- Much of the bottom tier teams, and those who are falling in tier 2 are playing particularly hard matchups.
- Since Kory stoped playing tier 3 teams through weeks 1-4, he has lost to quality teams.
Bottom line. Schedule matters. It’s random. Some top teams aren’t actually good (Brandon) and some bad teams aren’t actually bad (Mike). And some bad teams are actually REALLY bad (Dylan).
NUT Report WK 6
Almost half way through the regular season and the pack is really starting to separate. Last week was more important than many teams will realize, with the 2-3 teams fighting for the last few spots, while the 4-1 teams continue to cruise forward in a battle for the top. Historically we already have two teams eliminated from the playoffs. But anything can happen this year with all the team grouped so tightly together.